In the final graph, you show a capacity of 150k wpm for SK Hynix in 2025. But in the text you say SK Hynix is now expected to target 170k wpm capacity in 2025. Why the discrepancy?
Also, why should Samsung become the capacity leader in 2025 given that it is still waiting for NVIDIA to qualify its HBM3E solution? Shouldn't we expect Samsung to take a more cautious approach to HBM capex because of that?
This could be because different organizations have made varying estimates. Alternatively, it might be that SK Hynix set its 170K WPM production capacity target after the estimates presented by TrendForce were released.
As for Samsung, I believe they are more likely to increase their HBM CAPEX rather than reduce it. If they approach CAPEX cautiously now, they risk losing the advantage of the massive scale of capacity they’ve enjoyed so far.
" wafer consumption ratio of HBM compared to general-purpose semiconductors was approximately 1:2.5~1:3. With HBM4, this is projected to exceed 1:3" ...not sure if I get this correct basically this means for HBM you use 2.5 more silicon area and this will increase to >3?
do you have HBM capacities for MU as well for 2023, 2024, 2025 - for SK and Samsung you referenced some numbers
Well if they are going to generate tens of billions of dollars in the coming years, it has to go somewhere.... not just going to go up in flames. Is it similar to Samsung with the ownership? It makes no sense to me... Made $3 billion in free cash last quarter and HBM is just getting started.
Very interesting article, thank you.
In the final graph, you show a capacity of 150k wpm for SK Hynix in 2025. But in the text you say SK Hynix is now expected to target 170k wpm capacity in 2025. Why the discrepancy?
Also, why should Samsung become the capacity leader in 2025 given that it is still waiting for NVIDIA to qualify its HBM3E solution? Shouldn't we expect Samsung to take a more cautious approach to HBM capex because of that?
This could be because different organizations have made varying estimates. Alternatively, it might be that SK Hynix set its 170K WPM production capacity target after the estimates presented by TrendForce were released.
As for Samsung, I believe they are more likely to increase their HBM CAPEX rather than reduce it. If they approach CAPEX cautiously now, they risk losing the advantage of the massive scale of capacity they’ve enjoyed so far.
" wafer consumption ratio of HBM compared to general-purpose semiconductors was approximately 1:2.5~1:3. With HBM4, this is projected to exceed 1:3" ...not sure if I get this correct basically this means for HBM you use 2.5 more silicon area and this will increase to >3?
do you have HBM capacities for MU as well for 2023, 2024, 2025 - for SK and Samsung you referenced some numbers
thx
I have updated the HBM CAPA outlook for Micron.
Yes, you understood correctly.
I’ll look into Micron’s HBM production capacity and let you know.
much appreciated
How is SK Hynix not worth double their current price in the stock market??
Because it’s owned by a Korean chaebol. The “Korea discount” is inevitable.
Well if they are going to generate tens of billions of dollars in the coming years, it has to go somewhere.... not just going to go up in flames. Is it similar to Samsung with the ownership? It makes no sense to me... Made $3 billion in free cash last quarter and HBM is just getting started.