Nand Trend Monthly-IBK Investment & Securities
Prices remain weak
Below is the English translation of a report by Korea IBK Investment & Securities
Continued Weak NAND Market Demand Outlook
• In Q4 2024, the NAND market ended in a downward trend due to overall weak demand. NAND prices continued to decline, and Omdia forecasts a quarter-over-quarter decline of 5–10% in Q1 2025.
• As of January 2025, the price of 512Gb TLC NAND was recorded at $2.74—a 2% decline from the previous month—while the prices of 256Gb and 1Tb TLC dropped by 5.3% and 3.3% respectively, to $1.2 and $5.78.
• The 512Gb variant experienced a more modest drop in ASP because its Q4 price rebound was less pronounced compared to other products. Additionally, the 1Tb TLC NAND for smartphones (equivalent to 128GB) had been the most preferred product for the past 3–4 years; however, as it has been replaced by the 256Gb variant starting in H2 2024, the rate of price decline for the 1Tb product has accelerated.
• Regarding the overall market demand outlook for 2025, Omdia maintains a conservative stance due to economic uncertainties, including inflation related to U.S. tariffs.
• In 2024, NAND demand for mobile devices increased by 38%, driven by storage upgrades in flagship smartphones. However, growth is expected to slow in 2025, and volatility in the mobile market is anticipated to persist from Q1 through Q2.
• While servers and cloud service providers (CSPs) were the highlights in 2024, Omdia expects more conservative bit growth in demand in 2025 following the strong performance in 2024.
• PC OEMs are expected to commence procurement starting in H1 2025, driven by the discontinuation (EOL) of Windows 10 and the expansion of product lines for AI PCs.
• On the supply side, NAND suppliers are scaling back production plans and slowing down node transition speeds to appropriately adjust inventory levels and prevent further price declines.
