2026 HBM: A Shift from Monopoly to Competition

Based on a report by Kiwoom Securities.

TLDR: The HBM industry will continue its growth trend in 2026, but the severe supply shortage is expected to be resolved.

This is due to Samsung Electronics' aggressive entry into the HBM4 market and improved HBM yields from both Samsung Electronics and Micron. Consequently, the supply price of HBM3E is projected to fall by 30% YoY, and HBM4 prices will face challenges in reflecting cost increases.

• For HBM3E supplied for Blackwell, SK hynix and Micron are expected to maintain a strong position, capturing 75% and 20% market share, respectively. However, for HBM3E for ASICs, Samsung Electronics is forecasted to secure a 60% share.

• For the newly supplied HBM4, competition among suppliers is expected to intensify, leading to projected market shares of 50% for SK hynix, 30% for Samsung Electronics, and 20% for Micron.